Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate race in Democrats' favor

What it is about

Who published it, and when

How it spread - 59 original reports, 11 reprints

1. Wed, 5 August 2026

   1 report
   • The Hill17:32
     Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate race in Democrats' favor

     Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted the Kansas Senate race from safe Republican to likely Republican following the Rev. Adam Hamilton’s Democratic primary win. Sabato’s Crystal Ball said a Hamilton win is a “long shot” but highlighted his $3.09 million fundraising advantage over incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) last quarter as a growing...

2. Sun, 9 August 2026

   1 report
   • salinapost.com16:30first to report
     Analysts shift Kansas’ US Senate race from ‘safe R’ to ‘likely R’ — a small change with big impact

     Kansas U.S. Senator Roger Marshall during a press conference in Washington July 22-image c

3. Mon, 10 August 2026

   1 report
   • greatbendpost.com19:45
     U.S. Senate race between Marshall, Hamilton likely to consume more than $50 million

     State Sen. Ty Masterson of Andover, left, won the Republican nomination for Kansas govern

     1 reprint

     • hppr.org14 Aug, 12:04their copy
4. Tue, 18 August 2026

   1 report
   • crooksandliars.com22:53
     GOP Leaders Roger Marshall And Ty Masterson Sound The Alarm About Drag Queens

     Kansas GOP leaders Sen. Roger Marshall and Ty Masterson sound the alarm about the real menace in Kansas...Drag Queens. Forget tornadoes; the true threat to Kansas and America is...glitter and heels!

5. Sat, 22 August 2026

   1 report
   • hayspost.com19:45
     Senator Marshall, Adam Hamilton fight about debate rules

     Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat candidate Adam Hamilton are in a battle over Marshall's U.S. Senate Seat. On August 17, Marshall chal

6. Mon, 24 August 2026

   1 report
   • rawstory.com14:45
     Republican caught 'covering his tracks' as life choice becomes opponent's attack ad

     Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) spent nearly four times more taxpayer money than previously thought on travel to an out-of-state home that is quickly becoming a re-election liability despite his efforts to sell it.A new Kansas City Star analysis found Marshall billed taxpayers $18,886 for 14 official tri...

7. Wed, 26 August 2026

   1 report
   • salinapost.com22:15edited after publishing
     Kansas Farm Bureau gives endorsement to Marshall in U.S. Senate race

     -Senator Marshall and Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins in southwest Kansas in Feb. 2025- photo

8. Wed, 2 September 2026

   1 report
   • PBS NewsHour21:58
     No Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat in a century. Can a megachurch pastor change that?

     Adam Hamilton has spent decades trying to bring people to Jesus as founder of the nation's largest United Methodist church. Now he wants to bring Kansas voters to the polls as the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate.

     1 reprint

     • salinapost.com6 Sept, 15:30their copy
9. Thu, 10 September 2026

   1 report
   • crooksandliars.com11:05
     Sen Roger Marshall Got Roasted After News He Sued And Arrested Patients

     Roger Marshall was an OBGYN before becoming a GOP Senator. After news broke that "Doc Marshall" sued and arrested patients, the Kansas Senator is getting roasted.

10. Sat, 12 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill22:44
      Marshall backtracks on support for $5,000 Trump dividend in Kansas Senate debate

      Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kans.) appeared to shift his opinion on President Trump’s $5,000 dividends announced earlier this week. In a debate at the Kansas State Fair against Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton, a moderator asked both candidates if they supported the dividends, citing the proposal’s $1.2 trillion cost amid the growing national debt. “I’m going to...

11. Sun, 13 September 2026

    1 report
    • wibw.com20:27
      Governor, U.S. Senate debates draw packed crowds at Kansas State Fair

      Candidates addressed affordability, healthcare, artificial intelligence and more as the Nov. 3 election approaches.

12. Wed, 16 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill17:23
      Kansas's former GOP governor backs Democrat over Marshall for Senate

      Former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves (R) on Tuesday endorsed Adam Hamilton, a Democrat challenging Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R). Saying the country is “facing increasing partisan gridlock and division,” Graves said it is “time Kansas does something different” and elect Hamilton, a Methodist minister. “For the last six years, Senator Roger Marshall has turned his...

      1 reprint

      • yahoo.com16 Sept, 17:23their copy
13. Fri, 18 September 2026

    5 reports
    • The Hill10:00
      Democrat leads Marshall in tight Kansas Senate race: Poll

      Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leads Republican Gov. Roger Marshall in a tight race for Senate in red Kansas, according to new polling. A new The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey found Hamilton ahead by 2 percentage points, with 45 percent to Marshall’s 43 percent. Another 4 percent chose Libertarian candidate David Graham, and 8 percent were...

    • The Hill12:00
      Democratic Senate candidate in Kansas won’t support Schumer for leader

      Adam Hamilton, the Democratic candidate running for Senate in Kansas, says he will not support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) as Democratic leader if the megachurch pastor defeats Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) in November. “I’m not supporting Schumer for leader,” Hamilton told CNN’s Kasie Hunt in an interview. “I’m saying let’s look to...

    • newsweek.com15:53
      Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall: Latest Kansas Senate race odds and polls

      A new September poll puts Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead of Republican Senator Roger Marshall, 45 percent to 43 percent.

    • fox23.com19:26
      Poll: Democrat narrows gap in race for Kansas Republican's Senate seat

      Adam Hamilton is leading incumbent Senator Roger Marshall by two percentage points in a new Emerson College poll, within the margin of error.

      3 reprints

      • wchstv.com18 Sept, 19:26their copy
      • katu.com18 Sept, 19:26their copy
      • wgme.com18 Sept, 19:26their copy
    • katu.com20:49
      Kansas Democrat campaigns on change in ruby red state's Senate race

      Adam Hamilton's critical messaging covers controversial figures in both parties.

      2 reprints

      • fox23.com18 Sept, 20:49their copy
      • wgme.com18 Sept, 20:49their copy
14. Mon, 21 September 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill13:30
      Inflation and tariffs shake Republican-leaning states in the Midwest

      A Democratic challenger is running neck-and-neck with Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in the Kansas U.S. Senate race, reflecting broader national discontent with the Trump administration's economic policies and local controversies surrounding Marshall's medical debt collection practices.

    • politicalwire.com19:52
      Private Polling Shows Adam Hamiliton Leading in Kansas

      A Republican source familiar with the U.S. Senate race in Kansas said private polling also showed Adam Hamilton (D) with a slight lead over Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), The Hill reports.

15. Wed, 23 September 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill13:30
      Cook Political Report shifts Kansas, South Carolina Senate races toward Democrats

      The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report on Wednesday shifted the Senate races in Kansas and South Carolina toward Democrats, with just more than a month before the November midterm elections. Kansas shifted from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" for Sen. Roger Marshall's (R-Kan.) race to keep his seat against Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton....

    • PBS NewsHour22:35
      Former Kansas GOP governor explains why he's backing Democrat Adam Hamilton for Senate

      Former Kansas Gov. Bill Graves, a Republican, crossed party lines to endorse Democrat Adam Hamilton in his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Graves said the country is facing "increasing partisan gridlock and division" and that it's "time Kansas does something different." He joined Geoff Bennett to discuss that decision and what it says about his view of the Republican Party today.

16. Thu, 24 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill19:53
      Marshall GOP primary challenger backs Democrat in Kansas Senate race

      Arch Naramore, who mounted a primary challenge to GOP Sen. Roger Marshall (Kan.) earlier this year, endorsed the senator’s Democratic opponent Thursday. Naramore said in a YouTube video he has “always” been a Republican. But he still threw his support behind Democrat Adam Hamilton, who is seeking to unseat Marshall in the Senate this November....

17. Sun, 27 September 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill16:00edited after publishing
      GOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red state Kansas

      previouslyGOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red-state Kansas

      It's been nearly a century since Kansas voters sent a Democrat to the Senate. But Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, is looking to make that jump as Republicans grow more and more unsettled about incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall’s chances in the heartland. “It's all or nothing in a sense, because the story is that...

18. Tue, 29 September 2026

    1 report
    • postindependent.com23:28
      Housing, energy and immigration shape Senate District 8 forum

      Senate District 8 candidates Corey Marshall and incumbent Dylan Roberts drew sharp contrasts over affordability, energy, immigration and the role of state government Monday during a candidate forum at the Ute Theater in Rifle. The...

19. Fri, 2 October 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill17:52
      Another former GOP governor backs Hamilton over Marshall for Kansas Senate

      Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden (R) became the second former GOP governor to support Democrat Adam Hamilton over Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) in November's Kansas Senate race. Hayden, who served from 1987 to 1991, published an op-ed in The Wichita Eagle on Friday endorsing Hamilton for a seat that has not been held by a...

    • The Hill19:31
      Kansas Democratic Senate nominee says 'please, no' to Harris campaigning for him

      Kansas Democratic Senate nominee Adam Hamilton said “please, no” on Thursday to the possibility of former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigning with him ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Appearing on Politico’s “The Conversation,” Hamilton discussed which national Democrats he would be willing to campaign with. “It wasn't like I was a huge champion for...

20. Mon, 5 October 2026

    2 reports
    • aol.com07:01
      Can Democrats flip a GOP Senate seat in Kansas? They actually might

      Megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton could snap the longest Senate losing streak in U.S. history if he beats Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.

    • The Hill15:20
      Senate GOP PAC set to invest $14M in tight Kansas Senate race

      The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a PAC aligned with Republican Senate leadership, is upping its spending in Kansas as the race for Senate heats up. The group plans to invest $14 million to support incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), according to a source familiar with the SLF’s plans. Much of that will go toward ads...

21. Tue, 6 October 2026

    2 reports
    • hani.co.kr09:45
      [Reportage] Ahead of midterms, farm belt’s loyalty to Trump shows cracks in Kansas

      From the Iran war to tariffs, dissatisfaction with Trump’s policies could prompt deep-red Kansas to elect its first Democratic senator in nearly a century

    • dailycaller.com20:29
      Major Election Forecaster Shifts Senate Race To Toss Up For Seat Dems Haven’t Held Since FDR

      Cook Political Report, a prominent elections analysis publication, shifted the Kansas Senate race Tuesday from leaning Republican to a “toss up.”

22. Thu, 8 October 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill14:32
      Kansas joins a tightening Senate map as Election Day nears

      The battle for the Senate is expanding into Kansas, where Democrat Adam Hamilton is running even with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Decision Desk HQ’s latest polling average. Plus, how the tightest races across the country are shaping the fight for control of the upper chamber. Join The Hill’s senior vice president of editorial content, Bill...

23. Fri, 9 October 2026

    4 reports
    • newrepublic.com00:00
      Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue

      Democrat Adam Hamilton is polling shockingly well in the deep red state’s Senate race.

    • Google News - Top Stories16:47
      Top Democratic Group Pumps Millions Into Kansas Senate Race

      Top Democratic Group Pumps Millions Into Kansas Senate Race The New York Times Kansas Senate Race Is a Surprising New Midterm Fight The New York Times Kansas’ 94-year streak is unlike anything else in American politics CNN Who Is Adam Hamilton? Pastor Could Be Kansas’ First Democratic Senator Since 1932 Forbes Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue The New Republic

    • Google News - Top Stories18:28
      Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race

      Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race Politico Kansas Senate Race Is a Surprising New Midterm Fight The New York Times Kansas’ 94-year streak is unlike anything else in American politics CNN Who Is Adam Hamilton? Pastor Could Be Kansas’ First Democratic Senator Since 1932 Forbes Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue The New Republic

    • Google News - Top Stories19:23
      The Midterm Senate Fight Spreads to a Surprising New Battleground

      The Midterm Senate Fight Spreads to a Surprising New Battleground The New York Times Democrats drop $5M into Kansas Senate race Politico Kansas’ 94-year streak is unlike anything else in American politics CNN Who Is Adam Hamilton? Pastor Could Be Kansas’ First Democratic Senator Since 1932 Forbes Why Kansas Might Do the Unthinkable and Vote Blue The New Republic

24. Sun, 11 October 2026

    1 report
    • The Hill17:09
      Hamilton says Vance's attacks on his religion are 'really sad,' 'pathetic'

      Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton (D) on Sunday clapped back at Vice President Vance's attacks on his religious beliefs, calling the attacks "really sad" and "pathetic." ABC's Jonathan Karl sat down to interview Hamilton in the Sunflower State and asked the moderate pastor about Vance, who has been outspoken about his religious beliefs since before...

25. Mon, 12 October 2026

    3 reports
    • newsbusters.org00:03
      ABC Finds an Acceptable Christian, Gives Adam Hamilton his Close-Up

      URL changednow www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/jorge-bonilla/2026/10/11/abc-finds-acceptable-christian-gives-democrat-adam-hamilton-his

      The far-left Elitist Media will, from time to time, spotlight Christian Democrats whose ideas align with the left and cast them as role models. This has recently been the case with the Reverend Raphael Warnock and part-time seminarian James Talarico,. It is now time for the Reverend Adam Hamilton, Democrat Senate nominee from Kansas, to get his national close-up.

    • dailycaller.com19:38
      Incumbent Republican In Deep-Red State Tied With Democrat Opponent: POLL

      The two Senate candidates running in the deep red state of Kansas tied in the polls as of Monday, RealClear Polling averages showed.

    • Axios23:47edited after publishing
      Scoop: Top Trump operative enlisted to rescue Kansas senator's campaign

      A top Trump political operative has been tapped to help boost Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall 's campaign in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election , the latest sign of how Republicans are scrambling to defend the red-state seat. Why it matters: The hiring of veteran strategist Chris Grant reflects the GOP's growing anxiety over Kansas' Senate race . Marshall is running neck and neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state President Trump won by 16 points in 2024. Republicans fear losing Kansas could...

26. Tue, 13 October 2026

    2 reports
    • The Hill01:03
      Spicer says he's ‘absolutely’ concerned about Kansas Senate race

      Former White House press secretary Sean Spicer on Monday said he is "absolutely" concerned about Republicans losing the Kansas Senate race, which election handicappers say could flip in favor of the Democrats. NewsNation's "The Hill" host Blake Burman asked Spicer if he had any worry that Republicans could lose the Kansas Senate seat helmed by...

    • The Hill19:40
      Trump will campaign in Kansas to boost Marshall's Senate bid

      President Trump will hit the campaign trail in Kansas next week, the Republican National Committee (RNC) announced on Tuesday, as the state’s Senate race grows more competitive. Trump’s upcoming rally Monday in Wichita is the latest sign Republicans are paying more attention to their chances in Sen. Roger Marshall’s (R-Kan.) reelection bid. The nonpartisan Cook...

27. Wed, 14 October 2026

    7 reports
    • NPR News09:00
      In Kansas, a newly competitive Senate race tests limit of Trump's unpopular policies

      Kansas voters could send a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in nearly a century — and flip the governor's office back to Republican control, even in what could be a tough year for the GOP.

    • Google News - Top Stories09:00
      In Kansas, a newly competitive Senate race tests limit of Trump's unpopular policies

      In Kansas, a newly competitive Senate race tests limit of Trump's unpopular policies NPR A Megachurch Pastor is Running for Senate. Will Democrats Vote for Him? The New York Times Hamilton reports $10.6M Q3 haul for Kansas Senate race - Live Updates Politico Kansas' Senate race is a coin flip Axios Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate to toss-up The Hill

    • kcur.org14:00
      Kansas governor election: What to know about the candidates running in November

      Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson, an Andover Republican, is running against state Sen. Cindy Holscher, an Overland Park Democrat, in the race to replace the term-limited Democratic Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly.

    • lifenews.com17:56
      Kansas Pastors Urge Adam Hamilton to Repent of Unbiblical Teachings, Withdraw From Senate Race

      An impulse against maintaining a Christian cultural witness has caused that witness to become divided. In an open letter, Kansas Pastor Kyle Lammott called for Pastor and U.S. Senate candidate Adam Hamilton to publicly “repent of what you have taught and to withdraw from the Senate race.” The letter comes as Southern Baptist Convention President […]

    • The Hill19:12
      Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate to toss-up

      Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper, shifted the Kansas Senate race to a “toss-up” amid growing voter dissatisfaction with the GOP over the economy. The group noted in its explanation they were "hesitant" to shift the race but “a full-on Republican rescue operation appears underway for” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who is running for his...

    • wgxa.tv21:47
      Kansas Democrat rejects far-left label as Republican resists Senate seat takeover

      Adam Hamilton has campaigned on a moderate platform while incumbent Senator Roger Marshall spotlights his liberal positions.

      3 reprints

      • abcnews4.com14 Oct, 21:47their copy
      • news4sanantonio.com14 Oct, 21:47their copy
      • katu.com14 Oct, 21:47their copy
    • jcpost.com22:45
      Sam Brownback issues statement in race for Kansas U.S. Senate

      Photo from Sam Brownback's social media account TOPEKA —The race for a

28. Thu, 15 October 2026

    3 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories09:00
      A Megachurch Pastor is Running for Senate. Will Democrats Vote for Him?

      A Megachurch Pastor is Running for Senate. Will Democrats Vote for Him? The New York Times Hamilton reports $10.6M Q3 haul for Kansas Senate race - Live Updates Politico Kansas' Senate race is a coin flip Axios Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Kansas Senate to toss-up The Hill In Kansas, a newly competitive Senate race tests limit of Trump's unpopular policies NPR

    • mymotherlode.com12:01
      Sen. Roger Marshall sought funding to address a water shortage. The project could benefit his ranch - myMotherLode.com

      WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall wanted to solve a water rights dispute in rural Kansas that pitted farmers against environmentalists and threatened the health of a cherished wildlife refuge. The avid outdoorsman requested a $4.2 million earmark, records show, to help finance improvements that would increase the flow of water into the Quivira

    • Bloomberg Politics21:52
      Kansas Senate Race Turns Into Tossup, Sabato Says

      The US Senate race in Kansas has turned into a tossup according to pollster Larry Sabato. Polls show incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton are neck-and-neck. A Democrat hasn't won this seat in almost 100 years. Bloomberg's Amanda Albright reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

29. Sun, 18 October 2026

    1 report
    • Axios12:10
      Decades-old GOP winning streaks are suddenly at risk

      Democrats are running surprisingly competitive races in traditionally Republican territory across the country this midterm election cycle , and it's putting GOP winning streaks at risk that stretch as far back as the 1930s. Why it matters: Democrats hope ending political droughts in states such as Kansas, Texas and South Carolina will help make inroads in what has long been off-limits territory. Kansas - 1932 Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) is facing a surprisingly tough challenge from Democrat...

30. Mon, 19 October 2026

    2 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories20:57
      Trump rallies in Kansas as rising farm costs fuel Republican concerns about voter turnout

      Trump rallies in Kansas as rising farm costs fuel Republican concerns about voter turnout AP News In ruby-red Kansas, Trump contemplates the possibility of a Democratic win in the state The Guardian Trump uses antisemitic slur in defending Sen. Roger Marshall at rally in Kansas NBC News President Trump headlines rally in Park City KAKE Election Dispatches: Trump Rallies in Kansas, Where Republicans Are Fighting to Preserve a Senate Seat The New York Times

    • The Hill21:00
      Watch live: Trump heads to Kansas as GOP fights to hold Senate

      President Trump heads to Kansas on Monday evening as Republicans look to shore up support in an unexpectedly competitive Senate race with just two weeks until the midterm elections. Trump is expected to rally voters for incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R), who faces a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that has long...

31. Tue, 20 October 2026

    5 reports
    • Google News - Top Stories00:27
      2026 Midterm Elections: Trump Campaigns in Kansas

      2026 Midterm Elections: Trump Campaigns in Kansas Fox News Trump says ‘polls are fake’ as he campaigns for GOP candidate in deep-red Kansas CNN Adam Hamilton makes final push with JoCo rallies opposite President Trump, Sen. Marshall rally KSHB 41 Kansas City Trump uses antisemitic slur in defending Sen. Roger Marshall at rally in Kansas NBC News ‘Very, very, very afraid’: Protesters cast Trump rally as an act of desperation Wichita Eagle

    • Google News - Top Stories02:08
      Trump uses antisemitic slur in defending Sen. Roger Marshall at rally in Kansas

      Trump uses antisemitic slur in defending Sen. Roger Marshall at rally in Kansas NBC News LIVE COVERAGE: President Trump visiting Wichita area today for midterm rally KWCH In ruby-red Kansas, Trump contemplates the possibility of a Democratic win in the state The Guardian ‘Very, very, very afraid’: Protesters cast Trump rally as an act of desperation Wichita Eagle Trump Uses Slur to Defend GOP Senator in Combative Speech Bloomberg.com

    • The Hill02:10
      Trump announces $8B relief program for farmers

      President Trump announced Monday that a new $8 billion program will help provide temporary relief to farmers during the harvest season. Trump announced the Harvest Fuel Relief Program during his rally in Kansas stumping for GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, who is running for reelection in a competitive race against his Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton. He...

    • Bloomberg Politics02:24
      Trump Uses Slur to Defend GOP Senator in Combative Speech

      President Donald Trump used an antisemitic term during a rally in Kansas as he came to the defense of Republican Senator Roger Marshall, who faces a surprisingly competitive race in a deeply red state.

    • The Guardian World04:13
      In ruby-red Kansas, Trump contemplates the possibility of a Democratic win in the state

      The president came out in support of Senator Roger Marshall, who is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton The fact that Donald Trump was here at all said more about a looming electoral disaster facing his Republican party next month than anything contained in his dark and discursive 98-minute stump speech. On Monday, amid raucous chants of “USA! USA!”, the president held his first campaign rally in Kansas for eight years. No Democrat has won a US Senate seat in...